Readers reviews of The Great Wave
You can add your review of this book by
contacting us . We will then place your review on this page. (You can
request to have your name deleted if you wish)
Traders who believe there are cycles in the market that repeat regularly will not want
to read this book because it thoroughly debunks the idea of repeated cycles in economic or
market history. This book is based on detailed research stretching back to Medieval times.
The last half consists of additional notes, research sources, exact explanations of how
price series were calculated and more detailed discussions of points raised in the first
half. This is a scholarly book with the first half acting as a detailed overview.
Fischer explores the great waves of price equilibrium and price disequilibrium that
have occurred. Each of these waves is remarkably different in the time taken to complete.
Some have been as short as 80 years while others stretch for 180 years. The idea of a
Kondratieff wave gets a mention only to show just how false are its assumptions and how
irrelevant it is to the actual course of events. It, and many other popular theories
followed by some traders and market commentators are clearly out of step with reality.
Markets may be cyclic in nature, but they lack the regular, repeated precision necessary
for a cycle to exist. Instead a repeated wave is a better explanation that fully describes
The core of Fischers exploration is the stability of the rate of change where there are
increasing magnitudes and expanding amplitudes of change. The same character of
development is evident in the Fourteenth, the Seventeenth, the Eighteenth and Twentieth
Centuries. Four, Seven, Eighteen and Twenty - not much of a cycle here, but certainly the
growth of a wave of price changes based on population growth, inflation and consumer
choices. The relationship is complex, but interesting reading.
This is not a book about trading techniques, but it does help us understand the nature
of the change and markets we work in. It also helps us to understand why an attempt to
impose cyclic and predictable order on a chaotic system is ultimately a wasted exercise.
It may help some traders to avoid mistaking co-incidence for correlation.
View our Privacy and Internet Security Policy
guppytraders.com Pty Ltd,
ACN 089 941 560